Template · Bidding
Bid/no-bid decision matrix with expected value
Pass-or-fail gates, weighted scores, expected profit and a bid log with hit rates by sector.
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XLSXCSVODSXMLNumbers| Bid or no-bid decision matrix | |||||
| Example data — replace the blue input cells with your own. | |||||
| WEIGHTED SCORE (PERCENT OF MAXIMUM) | RECOMMENDATION | EXPECTED PROFIT | |||
| 69% | Review | $38,500 | |||
| Opportunity | |||||
| Opportunity | Example Elementary School gym addition | ||||
| Client | Example Unified School District | ||||
| Sector | Education | ||||
| Bid due date | Dec 4, 2026 | ||||
| Must-pass gates (Yes or No; any No means no bid) | |||||
| We meet bonding capacity | Yes | Confirm each gate against the bid documents before scoring | |||
| We hold the required licenses | Yes | ||||
| Bid deadline is achievable | Yes |
Showing the first 16 of 52 rows and 6 of 6 columns. Cells with formulas show the formula on hover.
| Scoring guide: what a 1, 3 and 5 look like | |||
| Use the same reading for every opportunity so the scores can be compared. A 3 is the typical case. | |||
| Criterion | A score of 1 looks like | A score of 3 looks like | A score of 5 looks like |
| Client relationship | First contact, no prior work or contacts with the client | Some past work or known decision makers, no repeat award | Repeat client with a current framework or a standing invitation to bid |
| Competition level (5 = few strong bidders) | Open bid with many strong, well-funded bidders we have lost to | Typical field of three to five bidders with a known spread | Two or fewer capable bidders, or a sole-source style invitation |
| Project size fit | Far above or far below the size we deliver; needs new capacity | Within the range we deliver, with some stretch | Squarely within the size we deliver each year |
| Margin potential | Expected margin below our minimum after risk and overhead | Margin near our target after overhead and profit | Margin clearly above our target with room in the price |
| Risk level (5 = low risk) | Unclear scope, fixed-price unknowns, liquidated damages we cannot carry | Known risks with priced allowances and standard contract terms | Clear scope, cost-plus or unit price terms, well-defined risks |
| Staff availability | No estimator, superintendent or foreman free in the schedule window | Core staff available with some reassignment | Full team available with no conflict on the schedule |
| Location (5 = close to our office) | Outside our normal service area; travel and per diem add material cost | Within a reasonable drive; some added supervision time | In our core area, with existing suppliers and crews nearby |
| Payment history of the client | Known late payment or disputed retention | Payments generally on time, with some delay | Prompt payment record and clear payment terms |
| Strategic value | No new market, sector or capability gained | Adds a useful reference or a modest new capability | Opens a sector or client we want to build on |
| Past win rate with this client | We have lost every recent bid to this client | About even: some wins and losses | We have won most recent bids with this client |
Showing the first 14 of 14 rows and 4 of 4 columns. Cells with formulas show the formula on hover.
| Bid log: past bids, results and hit rate | |||||||||||
| One row per bid. Enter the result when known. The summary to the right counts won, lost and pending bids and the premium over the winning bid. | |||||||||||
| Summary | |||||||||||
| Date | Project | Client | Sector | Our bid (USD) | Result | Winning bid (USD, if lost) | Our score at the time | Premium over winning bid | Bids marked Won | 8 | |
| Jan 15, 2025 | Example Middle School roof replacement | Example Unified School District | Education | $1,240,000 | Won | 72% | Bids marked Lost | 10 | |||
| Feb 3, 2025 | Riverside Fire Station 4 apparatus bay | City of Example | Municipal | $3,480,000 | Lost | $3,310,000 | 61% | 5.1% | Bids marked Pending | 2 | |
| Feb 20, 2025 | Northwind Example clinic tenant improvement | Northwind Example Ltd. | Healthcare | $860,000 | Won | 78% | Hit rate, won divided by decided bids | 44% | |||
| Mar 11, 2025 | Harbor Road culvert replacement | Example County Public Works | Transportation | $2,150,000 | Lost | $2,020,000 | 55% | 6.4% | Average premium over winning bid, lost bids | 4.4% | |
| Mar 27, 2025 | Maple Court office fit-out | Example Property Group | Commercial | $540,000 | Won | 66% | OK: every lost bid has a winning amount | ||||
| Apr 9, 2025 | Lakeside library renovation | City of Example | Municipal | $2,760,000 | Lost | $2,690,000 | 59% | 2.6% | |||
| Apr 30, 2025 | Oak Hill elementary classroom addition | Example Unified School District | Education | $1,120,000 | Lost | $1,085,000 | 64% | 3.2% | Sector | Decided | |
| May 14, 2025 | Example Hospital surgical suite upgrade | Example Health System | Healthcare | $3,950,000 | Won | 81% | Education | 4 | |||
| Jun 2, 2025 | Westfield warehouse slab repair | Example Logistics Inc. | Commercial | $310,000 | Won | 70% | Municipal | 4 | |||
| Jun 18, 2025 | Cedar Avenue bridge deck overlay | Example County Public Works | Transportation | $1,690,000 | Pending | 57% | Healthcare | 3 |
Showing the first 16 of 206 rows and 12 of 14 columns. Cells with formulas show the formula on hover.
| Bid/no-bid decision matrix |
| Notes: what this workbook does, how to use it and the method behind it. |
| What it does |
| Decides whether to bid an opportunity. Five pass-or-fail gates come first; then ten weighted criteria give a score; then the expected profit of bidding is estimated. A bid log keeps past results so the hit rate and the premium over winning… |
| How to use it |
| 1. Enter the opportunity, client, sector and bid due date on the Decision tab. |
| 2. Answer each must-pass gate Yes or No. Any No recommends no bid, whatever the score. |
| 3. Score each criterion from 1 to 5 using the Scoring guide tab, and set its weight. Weights should total 100. |
| 4. Enter the contract value, expected margin, probability of winning and the cost of preparing the bid in the expected value block. |
| 5. Record each bid and its result on the Bid log tab. The summary counts results and shows the hit rate by sector. |
| Formulas and method |
| Weighted score: sum of (weight times score) divided by the maximum (weight times 5). Shown as a percent of maximum. |
| Recommendation: Bid at or above the bid threshold, Review at or above the review threshold, otherwise No bid. |
Showing the first 16 of 32 rows and 1 of 1 columns. Cells with formulas show the formula on hover.
What does this template do?
A bid/no-bid matrix helps a contractor decide whether an opportunity is worth the cost of pursuing. The Decision tab answers five must-pass gates first, such as bonding capacity and licenses. Any No recommends no bid, whatever the score. Ten weighted criteria are then scored from 1 to 5, and the weighted score is shown as a percent of the maximum. The recommendation is Bid, Review or No bid, based on thresholds that the user sets.
The expected value block estimates profit as the probability of winning times the contract value times the expected margin, less the cost of preparing the bid. It also gives the break-even probability of winning. The Scoring guide tab describes what a 1, a 3 and a 5 look like for each criterion, so that scores are consistent between opportunities. The Bid log records past bids, their results and the winning amounts, and it reports the hit rate overall and by sector.
The opportunity, client, bids, results and scores are fictional example data, set up to show how the matrix works.
What’s inside
- Five must-pass gates that override the score when any answer is No
- Ten weighted criteria with a scoring guide for scores of 1, 3 and 5
- Recommendation thresholds set as inputs
- Expected profit and break-even probability of winning
- Bid log with hit rate overall, by sector and the premium over winning bids
Which tabs does the workbook have?
| Tab | What it holds |
|---|---|
| Decision | Opportunity inputs, must-pass gates, weighted criteria, thresholds, recommendation and expected value. |
| Scoring guide | What a score of 1, 3 and 5 means for each criterion. |
| Bid log | Past bids with date, client, sector, amounts, result and score, with hit rate and premium summaries. |
| Notes | Purpose, steps, formulas used, assumptions and limits. |
What formulas does this template use?
This template holds 258 formulas in 595 cells across 4 tabs, so 43% of its cells calculate. They use 8 distinct functions; the longest formula is 197 characters.
| Function | Uses | What it does |
|---|---|---|
IF | 441 | one result when a test is true, another when false |
OR | 200 | true when any test is true |
COUNTIFS | 15 | counts cells meeting several conditions |
COUNTIF | 6 | counts cells meeting one condition |
SUM | 5 | adds numbers |
SUMPRODUCT | 3 | multiplies matching entries, then adds them |
AVERAGE | 1 | mean of numbers |
COUNT | 1 | counts numeric cells |
Counted from the workbook itself. Only functions that Excel, LibreOffice Calc, Google Sheets and Apple Numbers evaluate the same way are used, so the formulas survive every download format.
How do you use it?
- On the Decision tab, enter the opportunity, client, sector and bid due date.
- Answer each must-pass gate Yes or No.
- Set the weight and score for each criterion, using the Scoring guide tab as a reference.
- Enter the contract value, expected margin, probability of winning and cost of preparing the bid.
- Record past bids and their results on the Bid log tab.
What is it good for?
- Deciding whether to bid a public or private opportunity
- Comparing several opportunities on the same scale
- Reviewing the hit rate by sector before setting bid priorities
Questions about this sheet
Why does a failed gate give No bid even with a high score?
A gate is a requirement the company must meet to submit, such as bonding or licensing. If it is not met, the bid cannot be submitted, so the score does not change the recommendation.
What is the break-even probability of winning?
It is the cost of preparing the bid divided by the contract value times the expected margin. A win probability below it means the expected profit from the bid is negative.
How is the hit rate calculated?
The hit rate is the number of bids marked Won divided by the number marked Won or Lost. Pending bids are not counted until they are decided.